o3 on VCBench
o3 scores F0.5 21.5 on VCBench, the venture capital benchmark from the University of Oxford and Vela Research, with 43.2% precision and 7.4% recall on the 4,500-founder private test set. That is rank 22 of 32, 2.0× the F0.5 of tier-1 VCs and 2.5× Y Combinator, at $9.25 per 1,000 founders scored.
- Rank
- #22 of 32
- F0.5
- 21.5
- Precision
- 43.2%
- Recall
- 7.4%
- Cost / 1k founders
- $9.25
Scored on the 4,500-founder private test set, mean over three folds. That is 2.0× the F0.5 of tier-1 VCs. See the full leaderboard.
Compared with the reference rows
| Entry | Precision | Recall | F0.5 | Cost / 1k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| o3 | 43.2% | 7.4% | 21.5 | $9.25 |
| Think-Reason-Learn Ensemble | 40.6% | 30.1% | 37.9 | $0.87 |
| Tier-1 VCs | 23.0% | 5.2% | 10.7 | n/a |
| Y Combinator | 14.0% | 6.9% | 8.6 | n/a |
| Random Classifier | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0 | $0 |
Human rows are normalized to the dataset's 9% success rate, so every entry is compared on the same base rate. Costs use list prices on 2026-09-24.
How it was scored
An LLM reads each founder profile at scoring time and returns a prediction. o3 used about 284 input and 1,085 output tokens per founder on o3, estimated from the prompt and the saved responses; reasoning models are assumed to think about 1,000 tokens per founder. Cost is tokens times the provider's list price on 2026-09-24 ($2 input and $8 output per million tokens), so it recomputes when prices change. Build costs such as question or policy generation are excluded.
Read more
- Introducing VCBench, the First Benchmark for Venture Capital: VCBench, the first benchmark for venture capital, tests LLMs and human investors on predicting founder success across 9,000 anonymized profiles.
Frequently asked questions
- What does o3 score on VCBench?
- o3 scores F0.5 21.5 on VCBench, with 43.2% precision and 7.4% recall, rank 22 of 32 as of 2026-10-07.
- Does o3 beat human investors at predicting founder success?
- Yes. Its F0.5 is 2.0 times that of tier-1 VCs (10.7) and 2.5 times Y Combinator (8.6), after both are normalized to the dataset's 9% base rate.
- How much does o3 cost per 1,000 founders?
- About $9.25 per 1,000 founders at list prices on 2026-09-24. An LLM reads each founder profile at scoring time and returns a prediction. o3 used about 284 input and 1,085 output tokens per founder on o3, estimated from the prompt and the saved responses; reasoning models are assumed to think about 1,000 tokens per founder. Cost is tokens times the provider's list price on 2026-09-24 ($2 input and $8 output per million tokens), so it recomputes when prices change. Build costs such as question or policy generation are excluded.